MEPS: Global stainless steel production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 56.5 million tons in 2021
MEPS: Global stainless steel production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 56.5 million tons in 2021
MEPS raised its forecast for global stainless steel crude steel production growth in 2021. It is estimated that global stainless steel crude steel production will increase by 11% year-on-year to 56.5 million tons in 2021. Indonesia's production growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and China's strong growth supported the expected increase in supply.
In the first quarter, Indonesian stainless steel production reached 1.03 million tons, a record high. Indonesia’s shipments to Europe increased significantly in the first quarter. In May, Europe began to impose anti-dumping duties on Indonesian cold rolled stainless steel coils that have arrived in Hong Kong.
It is estimated that India will produce 3.9 million tons of stainless steel this year. In the first quarter, strong demand from European industries will drive export sales. However, as Indonesia actively promotes investment in new capacity, the production scale will be close to India, and India's status as the world's second largest stainless steel producer will not be guaranteed.
China's stainless steel output is expected to increase to 31.9 million tons, and the steel industry's production restriction policy in the first half of the year has limited impact on stainless steel output. In the second half of the year, the government took measures to curb exports in order to achieve production reduction targets.
The stainless steel production in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan is expected to exceed last year. It is not yet certain how much the fire at the Kaohsiung factory in Taiwan, China will have. It is expected that the stainless steel production in Taiwan this year may be lower than the level before the epidemic.
It is expected that European stainless steel production will achieve double-digit growth to 6.95 million tons. Affected by the weather, production will decline in the third quarter. Flooding in northern Europe has caused damage to steel production and logistics and transportation. It is expected to gradually recover in the fourth quarter.
US stainless steel production is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 2.46 million tons. Although the capacity utilization rate of steel mills has exceeded 80% since the end of May, it still cannot meet the strong domestic demand.
Despite global production growth, most markets are experiencing varying degrees of supply shortages. Due to the economic stimulus plan and the positive expectations in the post-epidemic era, global end-user consumption is in good condition. Low inventory levels have exacerbated the tight supply. Therefore, in the medium term, prices may face continued upward pressure.
